Sunday, March 25, 2012

Forecasting Weather (Tornado): For My Subdivision?

An EF3 tornado touched down in my city of Sunset Hills, Missouri, on Dec 31st 2010. We were in Los Angeles preparing to participate in the annual Rose Bowl Parade, when a friend from our subdivision called with the shocking news and turning on CNN filled in the rest of details. This friend was doing OK but his house suffered some wind damage.  Our house lost some shingles. We are all lucky comparing to the neighbors and people around town who lost their properties completely.

An EF3 Tornado Hit Sunset Hills, MO on Dec 31, 2010

The so-called New Year Eve tornado cut a long trail from Fenton, about 10 miles to the west, lept over the southwestern corner of our subdivision which is on a hilltop, and touched down near the intersection of Lindbergh & Watson, about 4 miles to the east of our house, wiping out one city block with mostly residential buildings. This is the one and only tornado that has ever hit Sunset Hills and luckily life was lost despite some injuries. 

An incoming storm can produce damaging hail and thunder lightening right next to an area with sunny sky. In the case of tornado, it’s almost always constrained to a certain terrain and area where the funnel touching down from the cloud to the ground. So while we get most of our information on weather forecast from TV watching, the information isn’t that actionable, as the forecast is too broad/regional or far out from the event imminent. In most cases, we glued to the TV while the storm is approaching just to find out what had already happened. 


Sunset Hills, A Beautiful Town Southwest of St. Louis County, Missouri

Weather forecast should be much more relevant if it’s more localized and short-term. In one possible scenario, while facing an incoming storm, what if Sunset Hills residents can log online, type in our home address and get minute-by-minute weather forecast within a one-mile radius that leads towards the touch down of tornado? This will help tremendously the readiness and preparation for the approaching disaster and reduce the casualty and avoid loss of life.  
In the next post of this series, I will discuss how to turn "should" into "can" as scientists and technologies tackle this challenge. 


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